It is interesting that these two emotions are also a big part of poker playing, more prevalent at the beginning level. You bet a good hand because you want to make more money, you fold a bet/raise because you fear you have an inferior hand, or on a deeper sense because you fear losing more money (according to whatever metric you use). Whether these emotions are in the forefront of your game or are hidden behind strategies and calculated odds, the outcome is the same. It's the reason why players check, bet, raise, or fold.
I have not looked into the math of poker yet as much as I should, and I keep postponing it for some reason, probably because it will make it more serious than fun if I did. I love math, but I'm not ready to give up fun poker, yet..
What I have been doing however, is play the game partly based on "sentiment" as at the lower stakes the game is more emotionally driven than statistically driven, it seems.
Sentiment is a well known metric for trading the stock market and can help with risk management. Poker players play sentiment all the time, that's why they observe the table dynamics and the individual players, that's table sentiment and player sentiment (is this a new term for poker? or is there a term that conveys the concept of looking at the table/player tight/loose behavior? while not associating it with an action such as passive or aggressive?). You can tell if a person is fearful, or "scared money", or if they are greedy which is exhibited by aggression (steal, RR steal attempt, 3bet, etc). There are many other factors that are more important when playing the game, but just as in trading, you want to have "more checks in your favor" before you take on the trade/risk and this is one more check for poker too.
The last several times I played 1Table SnG Turbo I focused on people's sentiment, fear and greed levels, to factor into my game strategy. I think this has helped in producing more winning hands by capitalizing on people's greed and fear.
My strategy in the following heads up against this player is to slow play a strong hand and this player's greed served him a deadly first punch in a 1-2 punch knockout.
(images are from the same SnG game with different hand history displayed after my review of the game)
The first punch was hitting quad aces and slow/value playing that after the flop when I was behind on chips. It was good that he hit the jack on the turn too, as I checked the flop and 3xBB bet the turn after he tried to slow play his full house on the turn. He came all in after my bet. Somewhat predatory strategy, but also opportunistic as that's what I thought would work with this aggressive player.
The second and final punch was pocket T for me and hitting the set on the flop then a full house
Successful technical trading is opportunistic. You wait for the right setup and you take it in the right environment with the intent to maximize your winnings when possible (eg adding to a winning position or buying a stock because you know it has a heavy short interest with a good Risk Reward Entry and good news catalyst -- the opportunity of riding a likely short covering frenzy). Poker is no different I suppose, it is winning the hand and game by playing the right setup for the right environment --position, stack, table/individual sentiment, cards, etc.
I will hit the math behind poker when the stock market takes a breather. Sentiment there is highly bullish, however the leading stocks are not showing any signs of distribution and the trend is still intact. A reason to practice pot control, but not necessarily fold.
Peace and profits to all
StockNuts
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